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Rivian raised the baseline for its 2026 delivery outlook to 67,000 vehicles, up from 65,000, after the R2 became its best-selling vehicle by volume in the third quarter. The company says it expects most of its remaining deliveries this year to be R2s, but it still reported a quarterly net loss and has not disclosed a precise R2 delivery total.
Rivian raised the baseline for its annual delivery outlook to 67,000 vehicles after the R2 became its best-selling model by volume in the third quarter, the company said in its earnings report. The midsize electric SUV outsold the R1T pickup, R1S SUV and Rivian’s electric delivery van from July through September, giving the company a stronger sales starting point for its effort to expand production and improve its finances.
The revised outlook is now 67,000 to 70,000 deliveries, up from a previous range of 65,000 to 70,000. Rivian had earlier raised the low end of its forecast from 62,000 to 65,000 after delivering a record 19,751 vehicles in Q3. The latest change lifts the minimum expected annual total by another 2,000 vehicles while leaving the top end unchanged.
To reach the low end of the new range, Rivian would need to deliver at least 25,193 vehicles in the final quarter, according to the report’s calculation. On the earnings call, interim CFO Derek Mulvey said the company expects most of those deliveries to be R2s. Rivian has not provided a model-by-model delivery count in the supplied report, so the size of the R2’s lead over its other vehicles is not specified.
Rivian said it has started a second R2 production shift and expects the model’s production rate to rise over coming quarters. The company expects the R2 ramp to help it finish the year with a positive automotive gross margin. That forecast concerns the automotive segment, not Rivian’s overall profitability: the company reported a $913 million net loss for the quarter.
R2 Sales Put Rivian’s Targets Within Reach
The R2 is central to Rivian’s plan to sell at a higher volume than its more expensive R1 vehicles and build a larger customer base. Its early lead in the company’s third-quarter sales mix, paired with a second production shift, gives Rivian a potential route to increase deliveries without relying on the R1T and R1S alone. The revised forecast signals that management sees enough demand and production capacity to raise its minimum target again.
That does not yet establish that the R2 can make Rivian profitable. The company’s quarterly net loss narrowed from $1.17 billion in the year-earlier period, but it remained substantial. Rivian’s expectation of a positive automotive gross margin is a narrower measure than overall net income, and the supplied report does not give a timeline for company-wide profitability. Meeting the delivery goal would be a sales milestone, not proof that the financial turnaround is complete.
The model also matters to Rivian’s longer-term plans. The company is counting on increased scale from the R2 to support future vehicles, including the R3, and its investments in driver-assistance and autonomy technology. Those ambitions depend on execution beyond the current delivery target: production growth, vehicle costs and demand for future models will all affect how much the R2 contributes.
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How Rivian Reached Its New Forecast
Rivian reported 19,751 deliveries in Q3, a company record, before raising the baseline of its annual outlook once. The new adjustment came after the R2 moved ahead of every other Rivian vehicle by volume during the quarter. The report describes the model as having begun deliveries only months earlier, though it does not give the exact start date for customer deliveries.
Rivian’s third-quarter revenue rose 38% year over year to $2.1 billion. The report attributes that increase to higher deliveries, regulatory-credit revenue and growth in software and services. Software and services revenue reached $605 million, up 45%, with the report citing Rivian’s partnership with Volkswagen Group as part of that business. These figures show that the quarter’s performance involved more than vehicle sales, even as the R2 became the leading model.
The R2 launched in June with a Performance Launch Edition priced just under $60,000. Rivian said a Premium version priced at $53,990 is expected to reach the market this year, with a Standard version priced at $44,990 planned for 2027. The lower-priced versions are future product plans; their eventual availability and contribution to sales are not established by the reported Q3 results.
““We had great results with R2 becoming our best selling vehicle by volume in the third quarter.””
— Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe
R2 Volume and Profitability Still Unclear
Rivian has not disclosed the exact number of R2s delivered in Q3 or given a breakdown of deliveries by model in the supplied report. It is therefore unclear how far the R2 outsold the R1T, R1S and delivery van, or how much of the revised annual target depends on it. The forecast also does not guarantee the company will meet its target: production, deliveries and customer demand through the rest of the year remain to be seen.
Rivian’s expected positive automotive gross margin is a company forecast, and the report does not specify the size of any expected margin or whether it would persist. The company remains loss-making overall, while the timing and market response for the less expensive R2 trims have not yet been established in the reported results.
Production Ramp and Year-End Deliveries
The next test is whether Rivian can translate the second production shift into higher output and deliveries. To meet the revised low-end forecast, it must deliver at least 25,193 vehicles in Q4, based on the report’s calculation. The company expects most of that volume to come from the R2 and says the model’s production run rate should increase over the coming quarters.
Rivian’s next financial update should clarify whether it reached the annual delivery range and whether the R2 ramp supported the promised positive automotive gross margin. Until then, the revised guidance remains a forecast rather than a reported year-end result.
Key Questions
What changed in Rivian’s annual delivery forecast?
Rivian raised the low end of its annual delivery range from 65,000 to 67,000 vehicles. The top end remains 70,000.
Why did Rivian raise its forecast?
The company said the R2 was its best-selling vehicle by volume in Q3, outselling the R1T, R1S and electric delivery van. Rivian also reported a record 19,751 deliveries for the quarter.
How many vehicles does Rivian need to deliver in Q4?
To reach the low end of its revised annual target, Rivian would need to deliver at least 25,193 vehicles in Q4, according to the supplied report’s calculation.
Is Rivian profitable?
No. Rivian reported a $913 million net loss for the quarter. It said the R2 ramp is expected to help the company end the year with a positive automotive gross margin, which is not the same as overall profitability.
How much does the R2 cost?
The Performance Launch Edition starts at just under $60,000. Rivian said a $53,990 Premium model is expected this year and a $44,990 Standard model is planned for 2027.
Source: insideevs.com
